Dive Brief:

• After years of  stagnation, paychecks will likely rise this year, even without a national increase in the minimum wage, according to a poll of 40 economists conducted in early May by USA TODAY. 

• Modest annual wage increases of about 2% since 2009 have actually been flat when adjusted for inflation, but that is set to change starting this year with unemployment falling from 8.1% in August 2012 to 6.3% this year.

• The Affordable Care Act will likely have an impact in retail, as workers leave due to the increased accessibility of insurance. Retailers will have to raise wages to attract replacements.

Dive Insight:

Household wealth is rising, debt is lower, the economy is improving, and the Affordable Care Act is making it easier for workers to pick and choose their jobs. That means wage pressures are up, especially for retailers looking for good workers. While that translates to more money out of retailers’ pockets, putting it back into workers' pockets in turn means more spending in retail.