Dive Brief:

• Consumers will kick off the holiday season tomorrow with 71% planning to shop during the upcoming long weekend, reported Deloitte yesterday.
• Between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, shoppers are forecasted to spend an average of $420, with 88% expecting to spend more money or the same amount this holiday season than they anticipated.
• Shopping will be spread almost evenly between brick-and-mortar stores and e-commerce, with 91% planning to shop online and 89% planning to shop at physical stores, said the report.

Dive Insight:

Thanksgiving Day will be the start of a holiday avalanche of retail sales. Deloitte is predicting that holiday weekend spending will reach a crescendo on Cyber Monday, with the spending average hitting $170, the highest of the upcoming shopping days.

Consumers are responding to the early promotions and deals of Black Friday, and have made going to stores on Thanksgiving a part of their family traditions, noted Rod Sides, vice chairman and U.S. retail and distribution leader, Deloitte, in a statement. "We see an even bigger draw toward Cyber Monday, which is set to attract shoppers both in-store and online, and capture the most dollars spent over the weekend."

Deloitte said 70% of its survey respondents will shop in physical stores and half (50%) online. Additionally, nearly 73% will shop online on Cyber Monday, accounting for 47% of the online spending this weekend. But there are different opinions on how this holiday weekend will play out. BlackFriday.com reported that holiday shoppers will spend more on Black Friday this year – an average $57 more – than on Cyber Monday. Meanwhile, Eddie Yoon, founder of the EddieWouldGrow think tank and advisory firm, said the decline of Black Friday is the result of a 20-year tailwind that will continue to fragment Black Friday into multiple mini-shopping frenzies year-round.

Overall holiday sales this year will be the best since the Great Recession, according to a report by B. Riley FBR. Analysts led by Susan Anderson predicted that same-store sales at retailers will rise 2.2% this holiday season, versus 1.6% in 2017 and 0.2% in 2016. 

Deloitte reported that 61% of shoppers are likely to visit stores with friends and family during the Thanksgiving weekend, which is a trend being driven by younger shoppers, with the number rising to 76% among Gen Z. Mass merchants lead the list of top shopping destinations for in-store shoppers with 45%, followed by 43% for department stores and 33% for electronics/office supply stores.

Deloitte reported that 72% of Black Friday consumers said they will be in the stores before 9 a.m. and the early birds will spend more than others that day. The leading reason cited by 82% of survey respondents who said they plan to shop in the stores on Black Friday is because of the deals.

However, there is a movement within retail to pull back on some of that holiday shopping. This year over 60 major retailers including Costco, Crate & Barrel, Nordstrom and TJ Maxx have made the decision to close on Thanksgiving day.