Dive Brief:
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The Federal Reserve Thursday made no move to raise interest rates, something that many economists had come to expect, keeping the benchmark rate at near zero.
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What did surprise many was the tone the Fed took in its explanation of its stance. Global economic stumbles, the strong dollar, and stagnant middle class incomes are factors in the Fed’s hold-out, according to the Fed itself and many economists.
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The committee may not even raise rates in October or December, observers say, though that uncertainty, and resutling worry that it means the economy is faltering, is keeping Wall Street on its toes.
Dive Insight:
The move — or lack of one — to keep interest rates low is mostly good news for retailers, whose shoppers (and whose own operations) won’t be facing increased rates on loans heading into the holidays.
The factors keeping those rates low, however, are also the forces that continue to make business somewhat difficult for many retailers, including the strong dollar and stagnant wages and incomes for the middle class. A paper released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Commerce details how wages and incomes have stayed flat, leaving many middle-class families less able to get ahead of rising costs. And that phenomenon hasn’t changed much despite the current employment picture, which has improved to a 5.1% unemployment rate.
“This doesn’t feel like an economy that needs a brake tap,” Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, told the New York Times. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen “has been consistently, and thankfully, mindful of the absence of full employment despite the 5.1 percent unemployment rate.”
Lower gas prices that have stayed low are helping loosen shoppers’ wallets. That and the strong dollar are helping keep inflation in check without action from the Federal Reserve. Inching up interest rates would temper inflationary forces, but those forces just aren’t materializing right now.
The strong-and-getting stronger dollar will also continue to be an issue for retailers that source their merchandise from abroad or that sell to international customers, however.